Weight-loss pills now coming to market could be a boon to airlines' bottom line, according to an analysis by equity researchers at Jefferies.
The first oral prescription GLP-1 weight loss medication, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill, became available this month. Eli Lilly is optimistic its pill, Zepbound, will achieve FDA approval as soon as the second quarter.
Weight-loss medications, taken via injection, have already reduced the number of obese U.S. adults by 7.6 million since 2022, Jefferies noted. And 12.4% of adults report taking that class of medication. Usership is expected to grow further as pills replace shots.
For airlines, fewer overweight flyers means lighter aircraft, and therefore improved fuel efficiency. That, in turn, translates into fuel savings.
Jefferies noted that airlines often make even tiny tweaks to reduce flying weights and save money. That includes everything from carrying less water to using light utensils. In 2018, for example, United began using a lighter paper in its Hemisphere magazine, cutting an ounce of weight from each magazine and saving an estimated 170,00 gallons of fuel over the year, resulting in a savings of $290,000.
Savings from lighter passenger payloads are much larger. Jefferies said that if the average weight of a flyer on a Boeing 737 Max 8 were to go down 10% from 180 pounds, (the approximate average weight of a U.S. adult) the total passenger weight on a two-cabin Max plane would drop 3,200 pounds, which equates to 2% of the plane's maximum allowed takeoff weight.
Jefferies forecasts total combined fuel costs for this year at Delta, American, United and Southwest to be $38.6 billion, amounting to 19.1% of total expenses. A 2% reduction in aircraft weight could amount to a 1.5% improvement in fuel efficiency -- $579 million in savings.
"Please note savings are before any lost snack sales," the Jefferies analysts kidded.