When Lufthansa in October launched its first Boeing Dreamliner outfitted with the new Allegris business-class cabin, it did so with only four of those premium seats for sale. The remaining 22 were -- and remain -- blocked due to a long-delayed safety certification.
Lufthansa is not alone.
Delta will fly a subfleet of A321neos next year with a short-term configuration of 44 first-class seats while it waits out a long certification delay for the Delta One business-class suites it plans to install.
And Air India said seat delays have pushed back the timeline for completion of 40 widebody retrofits until 2028.
"The whole interior retrofit program has been affected not just by one supplier but by four of the five seat suppliers we are using," Air India CEO Campbell Wilson said in June at IATA's Annual General Meeting, adding that delays are between one and two years. "I've talked to a number of other airline CEOs, and they're facing the same challenges."
Across the global airline industry, supply-chain backlogs will cost carriers more than $11 billion this year, according to an October study from consulting firm Oliver Wyman in partnership with IATA. But seat supply is one of the stickiest challenges, as airlines press to upgrade and expand their premium cabins while manufacturers struggle with production rates that remain below the pre-Covid peak.
Meanwhile, regulators who certify seat safety, the FAA and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), have upped testing requirements, slowing new seat certifications, especially in business class, where seats are especially complex.
The problem is vexing enough that the FAA convened a three-day Aircraft Seat Certification Summit in Dallas this month with stakeholders across the aircraft seat supply chain. Ahead of the summit, IATA director of flight and technical operations Stuart Fox said the organization was hoping to find out what the systemic problems are and "what can be done about it."
According to Rob Semple, project director for aircraft interiors with U.K.-based consulting firm Counterpoint Market Intelligence, seat production for commercial aircraft with at least 30 seats in size was just 66.1% last year of its volume in 2018, when production peaked ahead of the grounding of the 737 Max, which was followed by the pandemic. However, those numbers are shifting upward. This year, Counterpoint forecasts production will be 93.7% of 2018.
Still, delays and shortfalls persist, and the challenges are various.
The seat supply industry is a concentrated one, led by three primary manufacturers -- Safran, Collins Aerospace and Recaro -- with a handful of other suppliers also having appreciable share, Fox said.
Semple said several suppliers cut work forces by half or more during the pandemic and have yet to return to their prepandemic size. "They have lost a lot of skills and knowledge, and that is hurting big time," he said. "Yes, the seat suppliers in particular need to get their acts together."
Collins Aerospace and Recaro did not respond to a request for comment, while Safran declined to comment.
One airline is working directly with a seat suppler to try to work around the delays: Emirates last month entered into an agreement with Safran to jointly establish a production facility in Dubai as it works to speed a delayed retrofit program of 219 widebody planes.
Choke points in the seat supply chain have been another production challenge. And airlines can gum up the works with programmatic mistakes, too. But all parties agree that the overlying problem has been slowdowns in the certification of new seats.
What's behind the delays?
Semple said that since the pandemic, the FAA and EASA have implemented some new aircraft seat regulations and have also begun interpreting some old regulations with a heavier hand.
New rules related to the escape path for sliding doors on business-class suites have been one source of delay, he said.
American Airlines appears to be one carrier impacted by that challenge. The airline took delivery of its first Airbus A321XLR in the summer but delayed launch until Dec. 18. The A321XLR is the first narrowbody American has equipped with privacy suites, but for now, those seats will fly with the door fixed open.
"We are working with government regulators to finalize the certification to operate the doors in-flight and expect customers will be able to enjoy the privacy feature in the coming months," American said in a statement.
Regulators have also begun requiring lengthier crash-testing regimes for various seat configurations, Semple said. Instead of requiring 12 to 15 successful tests, they are now asking for up to 35.
Fox said IATA entered the FAA summit hoping to identify ways to improve the certification process, such as better computer modeling for crash testing.
"We are not looking to cut corners on safety," he said.
Semple said certification complications, especially those that have resulted from new regulatory interpretations by the FAA and EASA rather than formal regulatory changes, will be tricky to work through.
"I think it will take months if not years to resolve some of the interpretation issues," he said.