As we look at the year that's coming to a close and contemplate a future filled with travel information complexity and availability on a previously unimaginable scale, I keep thinking about futurist Alvin Toffler's important book, "Future Shock."
Toffler described the psychological toll on workers and "societies" being "overwhelmed" by a constant barrage of mind assault in the form of "too much change in too short a period of time." In one of the book's most famous lines, he wrote, "the illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read or write but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn."
Well, buckle up as we enter still another new year, a year in which not even Alvin could have imagined the rate of change driven by AI and robotic technology. It is chilling to note that Toffler's bestseller was published in 1970. It preceded the internet, and now we face a new year and a new stage of our industry's evolution.
We are in the service industry, and it is our position that we will never be replaced by trillions upon trillions of wires housed in data centers, the largest of which can accommodate nine football fields' worth of data storage.
AI is expanding, with worldwide spending now projected to be in the range of $2 trillion this coming year. Major AI investment groups are spending to hyperscale AI-optimized data centers, expand AI integration across devices and deliver truly personalized enterprise software.
The future of AI is not a given. Some industry analysts point out that this is the biggest financial gamble in history. Money is being made in cloud computing and in the production of some specific products, but from a stock and investment point of view AI may be many years away from showing profits sufficient to justify current levels of investment.
There will be challenges. Electricity grids have to power the gigantic data centers, and high levels of cooperation and use must come from other nations. Ultimately, the consumer must be happy with a digitized lifestyle in which wires do most of the heavy lifting.
For now, I hope you will join me in keeping the office lights on. We're not going anywhere. But we will see changes. Here is a small sample of some of the trends I am following:
• The hospitality industry is going to experience some of the first tests of the consumer's willingness to accept robotic services and staff reductions on a major scale. Who/what will replace the hotel manager who makes it a point to spend time in the lobby talking to guests about their stay? Who/what will replace the personal staff recognition of guests, the personalized notes, the small details on a human scale that make a stay truly memorable? Oh, I know: It will all be handled by QR codes. But please be sure to make your clients aware that phony QR codes are now being placed all over the travel landscape to easily steal credit card and other information from travel innocents.
The hotel industry is intent on reducing staff expenses. Human interaction is being eliminated wherever possible. You will find apps and kiosks at the front desk, robot concierges and voice-activated smart rooms. Nothing like arguing with Alexa about dimming the lights.
Sometimes it is good for travel consultants to remember that in 2024, the average price paid for a hotel room in the U.S. was $159. At that price, the industry is betting that the consumer will choose efficiency over charm.
• The airline industry is seeing increasing demand, and load factors will remain high. But delivery delays and supply chain bottlenecks are an ongoing issue, and this restricts expansion. This means that airlines will have to extend the life of older aircraft while investing in enhancing maintenance, repair and overhaul capacity.
It is estimated that 10,800 fully certified controllers are working in our nation's airports, which is a reasonably impressive figure until you consider that an estimated 14,600 controllers are needed to "safely" manage U.S. airspace needs.
The International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers Associations, which represents controllers worldwide, has issued a warning that shortages threaten aviation safety and efficiency. The shortage is affecting Europe, Asia and the Middle East, where traffic growth far outpaces recruitment and training capacity.
• Ocean and river cruise vacations are clearly the hot sector, with generally strong booking trends and staggering growth. One company, Viking, has, as of this morning, 104 vessels carrying our clients on rivers and oceans worldwide. (That could change by dinnertime, of course.)
We will likely see close to 38 million cruise passengers worldwide when the 2025 data is compiled. About 31% of these cruisers are sailing for the very first time, and they have selected from an inventory of about 310 passenger ships worldwide.
It all looks positive for continued growth in the "TrueLux" cruise sector, but there are some issues challenging growth among more mainstream lines. A new Industry Report from Morgan Stanley, for instance, points to some weakening in the mainstream cruise sector in 2026 tied explicitly to "the treatment and perception of Americans abroad," something that is just now starting to appear in the research.
Much of the anti-tourist movement in Europe and elsewhere stems from the average spend ashore by cruise guests, coupled with the disruptions associated with "day tourism."
But overall, the cruise signs are very positive, as 85% of 2025 cruise capacity was sold by mid-June.
Shore excursions remain the area of cruising that receives the most negative consumer feedback. And that leads us to another major sector we will be looking at in 2026:
• Group tours is, I believe, the sector that may, ultimately, see some of the most significant changes. This will not come from robotic tour guides but, instead, from itineraries that more realistically reflect the needs of a younger demographic as well as experienced older travelers who have already stood in line at the Louvre and chomped on a panini while tossing coins in the Trevi Fountain.
Social media has significantly increased interest in contemporary life abroad. No cruise line or major tour operator currently owns the branding of touring that helps answer the question, "How would my life be different if I moved to this place tomorrow?"
Look for some companies to break out of traditional tourism mode: Does today's traveler really want to spend their time inside churches, museums and dated buildings while listening to a same old lecture in their earpiece?
Tauck feels that interests vary by age, and they have launched a division called Roam by Tauck that is aimed at 40- and 50-year-olds who yearn for small groups and will offer experiences coupled with significant free time to explore on one's own. My guess is that many of the Tauck guests in their 60s and 70s will find this "less heavily scheduled" approach appealing, as well.
Will we see more age-based touring styles in the years to come?
Please allow me to close by wishing you a new year of good health and travel dreams fulfilled. I look forward to sharing this space with you in the year ahead while, together, we "keep the travel lights on and burning brightly."