Paul Szydelko
A new economic study projects visitation to Las Vegas will bounce back in 2026. But the city's top tourism officials are taking nothing for granted as they grapple with the effects of 2025's lull and adjust prices to try to lure back tourists in the new year.
The Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, projects southern Nevada will host 40.1 million visitors in 2026, about 1 million more (2.4%) than this year.
With another month to go, which includes the National Finals Rodeo and the New Year's Eve fireworks celebrations on the Strip and downtown, the report expects 2025's visitation to be about 39.1 million. Final numbers won't be available until February, but that total would represent a 6% decrease from 2024.
"Since the national economy plays an outsized role in Nevada's and southern Nevada's economic outlook, CBER's current forecast shows a slowing, but predictable, path for the economy," the report said.
Continued pressures on prices and affordability, influenced by consumer uncertainty, tariffs and personal debt, dim the national economic forecast, the report acknowledged. But lower interest rates and stimulative effects from the recently passed federal fiscal package could counteract some of the economic slowdown, the report said.
"The level of uncertainty in the national economy -- and how businesses and consumers will make decisions based on that uncertainty -- complicates projections, but at this point we don't project a recession in the near term as some of this may smooth out given time," said Andrew Woods, the center's director.
Amid the decline in visitation, room tax and gaming fee receipts were down 14%, to $91 million, from a year ago in the first quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, according to another report from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority that was presented last month to its board of directors.
LVCVA president and CEO Steve Hill said the main reason for the tourism slump is a pullback in discretionary spending prompted by the general uncertainty about the nation's economy.
Responding to the slump
In addition to dealing with the macroeconomic issues at play, tourism executives are countering the perception that Vegas is no longer the value destination it once was. The opportunity to have fun at any price point was part of the message of a marketing campaign introduced this year.
"It was a difficult summer," Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg said on the company's third-quarter earnings conference call in October. "There has definitely been softness in leisure demand for Las Vegas."
Caesars reported quarterly revenue ending in September in Las Vegas was down almost 10%, to $952 million.
"I don't discount that there are areas in our business and in Las Vegas that might have gotten over their skis pricing-wise," Reeg said. "But the value proposition in Vegas stacks up versus just about anywhere that you could want to travel. What you can do while you're in town is the breadth of what's available. I line that up with any city in the world. So we feel fantastic about Vegas fundamentally."
Another public acknowledgement of the city's ongoing self-assessment came from Bill Hornbuckle, CEO and president of MGM Resorts International, during its October earnings call. The company reported revenue from its Strip resorts declined 7%, to $2 billion, during the third quarter.
"We lost control of the narrative over the summer," Hornbuckle said. "I think we would all agree to that in hindsight."
The company has reviewed what customers are willing to pay for, and about 90% of the adjustments based on that work are in place, another MGM official said during the call. Resort fees, parking fees and other charges remain, but pricing has been adjusted.
"When we think about pricing and things that got everyone's attention, whether it was the infamous bottle of water or a Starbucks coffee at Excalibur that cost $12, shame on us," Hornbuckle said. "We should have been more sensitive to the overall experience at a place like Excalibur to those customers. You can't have a $29 room and a $12 coffee. We have gone through the organization -- we think, we hope, we believe -- and we've price corrected."
A cyber sale, like the citywide effort conducted for five days in September, is underway to encourage bookings into 2026.