The U.S. Travel Association forecasts that international travel to the U.S. will fall 6.3% in 2025, the first decline since 2020. U.S. Travel said the decline threatens billions in spending and thousands of jobs, and the advocacy group called on the government to take action to reverse the trend.
International visitor numbers are expected to drop from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million this year, with significantly fewer visits from Canada the primary driver of the decrease, U.S. Travel said. Visitation from other countries is expected to be flat.
Meanwhile, outbound international travel continues to grow, pushing the travel trade deficit for 2025 to an anticipated $70 billion.
"While domestic travel is holding steady, the continued decline in international visitors threatens billions in spending and thousands of jobs," the association said in a statement. "The next decade can be one of extraordinary growth, but only if we act decisively. Outdated systems, excessive visa wait times and new travel deterrents are driving global visitors elsewhere. The U.S. must lead by modernizing travel infrastructure, streamlining entry processes and sending a clear message: America is open for business."
International visitors are estimated to spend $173 billion this year, making travel America's largest services export, U.S. Travel said, but down 3.4% from 2024. Inbound visitation is not expected to reach 2024 numbers until 2027, even though the U.S. will host big international events in 2026, including the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament. U.S. Travel forecasts 70.4 million international visitors in 2026.
The U.S. risks a further decrease in foreign travel because of a potential increase in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and negative sentiment towards the U.S. in key markets, the association said.
Domestic travelers are forecast to spend $1.2 trillion in 2025, growing in volume from 2.36 billion travelers to 2.4 billion. "Consumer sentiment shows concern about inflation and general economic conditions, but Americans continued to prioritize travel," U.S. Travel said.