NEW DELHI, India -- Aviation leaders at IATA's Annual General Meeting presented a divided front on the potential impact of President Trump's tariffs on the aviation sector.
While some members warn that the tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and increase operational costs, others believe the industry can adapt without significant damage.
IATA director general Willie Walsh said that if tariffs stay relatively modest, like the 10% baseline tariffs the U.S. currently has in effect for imports, their impact on consumer demand will be minimal. In some previous periods of high tariffs, Walsh said, the airline industry grew significantly.
"Industries adapt. People adapt," he said.
His confidence wasn't fully shared by the trade group's chief economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, who said that increases in tariffs and trade barriers will have a long-term downward impact on global flight demand. U.S. tariffs are currently at their highest level since the 1930s.
"Tariffs are a tax, and anything that you tax will shrink," she said.
Cirium analysts also sounded an alarm in a report produced ahead of the IATA meeting.
"While it is too early to judge any likely impact of tariffs on the commercial aviation sector, they pose a risk to demand and to supply," the analysis reads.
The most immediate impact could be on aircraft production costs, since suppliers Airbus, Boeing and others source parts for any particular plane from all over the world.
"The reality is that the supply chain for aircraft production is extremely complicated, globally distributed and is even more directly impacted by tariffs, or concerns about them, than air travel demand," said Vik Krishnan, an aviation-focused partner for the consulting firm McKinsey.
The sheer volume of parts on commercial aircraft are a key complication. For example, an Airbus A320 has 340,000 parts. And components for a single plane, said Krishnan, are assembled in a number of countries. Today's uncertainty around tariffs, he said, has a real impact on aircraft manufacturers.
Walsh called for aircraft and engine parts to be exempted from all global tariffs. He also said airlines would resist cost increases for aircraft unless suppliers can demonstrate justification.
"We don't want to see any of the manufacturers, any of the suppliers, using tariffs as an excuse or an opportunity to increase their prices to the industry," he said.
Airlines still on track for a good year
Despite those concerns, IATA's latest forecast indicates that global financial uncertainty will have only a mild impact on 2025 airline performance, mostly due to lower fuel costs. The trade group projects global airline revenues of $979 billion this year, down from its forecast in December that the industry would realize revenue of $1 trillion for the first time.
But revenue reductions will be almost entirely offset by lower-than-projected costs for fuel. IATA now expects a global fuel bill of $236 billion for airlines in 2025, with average jet fuel prices of $86 per barrel. That compares to an average per-barrel cost of $99 in 2024 and industrywide fuel costs of $261 billion.
Overall, IATA now projects 2025 industry net profits of $36 billion, only slightly down from its December projection of $36.6 billion.
IATA's projection assumes global GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025, down from 3.3% growth last year. IATA projects U.S. GDP to grow 1.5%, down from 2.8% in 2024.
IATA does not expect a global recession, in part because of the positive macro impact of cheap fuel and because the Trump tariffs only impact the manufacturing sector and not the servicing sector, which represents more than half of the global economy.
Even in the transatlantic market, where flight data company Cirium showed that U.S. arrivals dropped by more than 10% year over year in the first quarter, Walsh remains modestly bullish. Forward bookings look fine in the months to come across the Atlantic, he said, and two-way traffic outperformed 2024 by 2.4% in April.
"I suspect when we do look back on 2025," Walsh said, "transatlantic traffic will be slightly better than 2024."