GENEVA, Switzerland -- 2030 is supposed to be a benchmark year for airlines' use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), but it doesn't look like the industry is going to hit the target.
SAF production will slow in 2026, according to the latest IATA forecast. Many airlines have pledged to do 10% of their flying with SAF by 2030, but that doesn't seem likely now. IATA director general Willie Walsh said on Dec. 9 at IATA's Global Media Day, "I believe those figures are going to be impossible to achieve."
Among the airlines that have established 10% SAF targets by 2030 are Delta, Southwest, JetBlue, Air France-KLM and the collective membership of the Oneworld alliance, which includes American, Alaska Airlines and British Airways.
Air New Zealand this year became the first global carrier to back away from a 2030 sustainability commitment, saying that a supply shortfall will make them unachievable. Walsh predicted many others will follow.
IATA projects that global SAF production this year will be 634 million gallons, nearly double last year's figure. Next year, an estimated 800 million gallons of SAF will be produced, a percentage growth of 26%.
SAF production this year will account for just 0.6% of global jet fuel consumption and will increase to an estimated 0.8% next year.
IATA has sharply opposed mandates that went into effect this year in the U.K. and EU, requiring SAF to account for 2% of fuel supply. At the IATA meeting, Walsh said large fuel producers have exploited the mandates to price gauge on SAF, which has diminished demand. IATA says prices of SAF in the U.S. are approximately five times conventional kerosene-based jet fuel. There's an additional price premium of approximately 20% in the in the EU and U.K.
The U.S. leads the world in SAF production, with upwards of 50% more production than Europe, a state of affairs that IATA attributes, at least in part, to the approach of the U.S. federal government and some U.S. states to providing tax incentives for SAF production, rather than enforcing mandates.
Congress and the Trump administration extended federal SAF incentives this year, though at a lower incentive rate than the Biden administration.
Airlines globally have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, with 65% of the reductions to come from a ramp-up of SAF usage.
Walsh said he believes the goal is still achievable. "I believe 2050 is still possible but getting more and more challenging," he said.